Where each Pac-12 defector stands heading into the Big Ten
A look at the four teams headed for Big things.
Oregon really shouldn’t be this far ahead, right?
The Ducks have had four head coaches in the last ten years, they haven’t won a conference championship game since 2020 (high standards out here) and they’re 0-3 against Washington over the last two years in very important football games.
But as the Pac-12 falls farther in the rearview and spring practices continue across the country, it’s oddly the Ducks that feel like the safest bet for immediate success in the Big Ten.
USC? The Trojans are losing a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and unabashed faith in Lincoln Riley is being tested.
UCLA? Their head coach is now Ohio State’s offensive coordinator. Their quarterback is now Oregon’s backup.
Washington? The poor Huskies haven’t allowed Christian Caple of On Montlake up there in Seattle time to take a break with their constant stream of up-and-down news since the season ended.
And yes, the Ducks have some questions to answer. But we still like their chances of making an immediate splash in this new era of college football.
Here’s how The I-5 Corridor thinks the Bruins, Trojans, Huskies and Ducks will stack up heading into their Big future.
1. Oregon
2023 record: 12-2, 8-1
2024 overall class ranking per 24/7: No. 4 (No. 2 in Big Ten)
Big Ten outlook: Michael Penix Jr., Rome Odunze and Kalen Deboer can’t hurt the Oregon Ducks anymore. Frankly, that could spell trouble for the rest of the Big Ten. The Ducks have a third-year head coach in Dan Lanning who has had about as strong of an offseason PR cycle as you can find. The fans love him, and after losing just four games in his first two seasons — three of those losses coming against the Huskies — Lanning is gearing up for a season with quite possibly his most talented roster yet.
The Ducks replace one quarterback with 15,000 career passing yards with a quarterback with 14,000 career passing yards. They return Tez Johnson, who set a single-season receptions record for the program in 2023. They have two running backs averaging more than 5.8 yards per carry in their careers, return both their tackles, loaded up on the defensive line and secondary through the portal and have one of the deepest linebacking/edge corps in the country.
And, Oregon’s primary NIL collective knows how to own a news cycle and somehow get people wearing gear with DOAF on them.
The Ducks’ window is wide open in 2024. It’s not closing anytime soon.
2. USC
2023 record: 8-5, 5-4
2024 overall class ranking per 24/7: No. 20 (No. 5 in Big 10)
Big Ten outlook: Two years ago, back when USC ignited the Reverse Oregon Trail1, everything was coming up for the Trojans. They had just signed one of the best young coaches in college football who brought with him one of the sport’s best quarterbacks. And, if you were to tell people that after two years Caleb Williams would leave as the bonafide No. 1 NFL Draft pick with a Heisman Trophy in tow, you would have assumed things went pretty well for USC and Lincoln Riley.
Right?
Well, that hasn’t exactly been the case. USC did reach the Pac-12 Championship game in 2022, but got smoked by Utah in a game that has largely defined the former Oklahoma coach’s two-year tenure with the program.
The Trojans can score points. Oh boy can teams score points against them.
While you don’t just replace a Caleb Williams, there are far fewer worries about a Southern California lineup reloading at skill positions on offense. But in terms of fixing the non-existent dam on defense, Riley began his offseason by firing defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and replacing him with D’Anton Lynn who elevated UCLA’s defense from ranking No. 87 in 2022 to finishing the 2023 regular season ranked No. 11 in the nation.
They’ve continued to address the issue with an early 2025 recruiting class that saw the Trojans pull two of the nation’s top defensive line recruits out of Georgia late last month. There’s a lot of room to grow on that side of the ball for the Trojans, but stealing a few defensive commits from the Bulldogs’ backyard is generally a good place to start.
3. Washington
2023 record: 14-1, 9-0
2024 overall class ranking per 24/7: No. 29 (No. 8 in Big Ten)
Big Ten outlook: Talk about whiplash. Three months ago, the Huskies were the kings of the Pac-12, had asserted dominance against their biggest rival and we’re playing for the national championship game.
It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster since.
Down: Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama.
Up: Washington hired Jedd Fisch away from Arizona.
Down: The guy who hired Jeff Fisch away from Arizona left for Nebraska.
Up: Bah Gawd, that’s Pat Chun’s music.
The Huskies have been predator and prey three months into their Big Ten era, and while the Penix/DeBoer era showcased what can be achieved up in Seattle when things click, the attrition of this offseason sets UW up for a step back in the immediacy of the 2024 season.
Fisch is a better recruiter than DeBoer and will likely build the talent base of Washington’s roster better up than it would have been. However, with only a half-share of the Big Ten’s media rights until 2030, who knows how long Fisch will stick around before jumping to greener pastures.
4. UCLA
2023 record: 8-5, 5-4
2024 overall class ranking per 24/7: No. 60 (No. 17 in Big Ten)
Immediate Big Ten outlook: A school of thought sees the Bruins in better shape without Chip Kelly. The former Oregon head coach has never harnessed the same magic since leaving Eugene in 2013, and his six-year tenure with UCLA was exceedingly…average.
The Bruins went 35-34 overall under Kelly and a flat-out .500 in Pac-12. They never won more than nine games. They won one bowl game. They didn’t produce a single first-round draft pick and never finished better than 25th nationally in recruiting.
And being 25th would feel like a home run compared to the 60th-ranked 2024 class UCLA put together while Kelly straddled the fence. Ultimately, Kelly left to be Ohio State’s offensive coordinator. And while the hiring of DeShaun Foster as his replacement wasn’t exactly awe-inspiring, the former UCLA and NFL running back has put together an impressive staff, headlined by former Kansas City Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy, to bring Westwood into the modern age of college football.
Speaking of modern college football: The Bruins get LSU in Week 3, Oregon in Week 4 and Penn State in Week 5.
Your guess is as good as ours as to what attendance will be like in the Rose Bowl against Minnesota in Week 6.
— Tyson Alger, The I-5 Corridor
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Stealing that one from Kyle Goon.
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The Pac 12 is definitely in the rear view mirror and it's full steam ahead to Big 10 land. It's exciting and scary. Tyson, thanks for all the great coverage!